I believe that every friend who has done business in China has a full understanding and understanding of the impact of business, policies and government actions on private enterprises. Even if you haven't done it yourself, you can understand this year's Internet antitrust and various explosive hammers in the education industry. Western countries pursue efficiency. We give consideration to efficiency and fairness, which is doomed to be different from small governments in the West.
Therefore, if the government carries out special treatment for an industry or an enterprise, it is difficult for enterprises to fight back. This is an objective fact, needless to say. We don't need to discuss the rationality or legitimacy of government behavior. We just need to know that the government has this ability. This is also an important reason for the suppression of e-cigarette enterprise valuation.
Before talking about policies, let's talk about the current situation of the tobacco industry. Tobacco is now the last monopoly industry. The industry undertakes the responsibility of drawing financial revenue from the state, realizing more than trillion taxes and more than 100 billion industry profits every year, and all the money is turned over to the finance. With a turnover of less than 2 trillion yuan, we can realize such a profit and tax scale and build a proper banknote printing machine industry.
In addition to multi gold, the traditional tobacco industry is also characterized by low-key. After all, the back of this industry is the cruel reality of the country's largest lung cancer country. Therefore, this is destined to be an industry that can only make money quietly, and all participants should not be too high-profile.
According to the previous analysis, while developing traditional tobacco, China tobacco has transformed the HNB heating non combustion line to reduce harm and increase income, and continue to make a lot of money.
It happened that Cheng Yaojin was killed at this time. A company established for three years has a market value of $50 billion, and its founder has become the "richest woman", which is not low-key. This company represents a new development route, atomized e-cigarette. On this new route, there is no ready-made policy to correspond to management, the tax rate is very low, and the development speed is a little barbaric. How to define and manage this new thing is actually a problem for regulators. Yueke is like a prickly student, always stimulating the small heart of the regulators.
Yueke is not the first listed e-cigarette company. SIMORE was listed last year, and its market value is not low. However, it does not affect the hearts of key layers like Yueke, nor to the extent that it has specially issued policies for supervision and regularly issued articles to suppress it. Why?
Because smore, an e-cigarette R & D and processing enterprise, had no impact on the previous domestic tobacco pattern. Smore is like a good student in the class. He doesn't make trouble for the teacher. After receiving the orders from foreigners, the export, employment and output value remain in China after processing. Not only do they not grab the share of China tobacco, but also export to earn foreign exchange. At first glance, the government should strongly support and encourage them. Zhang Gao said that the Shenzhen e-cigarette manufacturing Corps led by SIMORE is even a model of a new generation of industrial enterprises that master core technology and realize high value-added development. It doesn't make sense to wave a whip at smore. Therefore, the definition I gave him was miscarriage, and Moore was not the main object of this supervision. Those who wish to export smoothie overseas under the centralized control of China tobacco can wash and sleep. SIMORE's overseas basic market is very stable, and our country will not do that to get a good student in the class.
But the situation is much more complicated. It can be said that Yueke's listing and a wave of media speculation have pointed out the conflict between the atomized e-cigarette brand and China Tobacco in advance, forcing the regulators to clarify their attitude immediately and can't pretend to ignore it. How to manage atomized e-cigarettes is a big problem for Yueke supervision.
Why do you say that? Let's talk about it in detail.
This involves a core problem: how about the combat effectiveness of atomized electronic smoke? Whether it can impact the original HNB development route. If the atomized e-cigarette ends, it can only take a market share of 10 points, occupy a market of 100 billion or 200 billion, and become a supplement to HNB. Then, it is acceptable for all parties to raise taxes and change their legal status, operate in an orderly manner under supervision, and be a little rich man. In master Tang's words, it means kneeling and earning money. You can't be too shabby, because that's it. Others want to kneel, but there's no way.
But pay attention to this. Regulators looked around the world, looked at the development pattern of overseas e-cigarettes, smacked it, and felt it was wrong.
First of all, in the United States, atomized e-cigarettes represented by closed small smoke and large smoke are the absolute mainstream. Even the strong ones like iqos have not won much market share. The UK encourages the development of atomized e-cigarettes to replace traditional cigarettes. Boss Philip Morris calls for stopping the sale of paper cigarettes in the UK by 2030. It can also be seen from the revenue of British American tobacco that it sold more than 600 million pounds last year, and HNB was on an equal footing, with a faster growth rate than HNB.
If we are more laissez faire and encourage the development of atomized e-cigarettes than Britain and the United States, atomized e-cigarettes are definitely not Wuxia Amun. After a few years, we will return to the old nest of Zhongyan. HNB can't do atomization. What do you eat and drink? How can you help the country collect taxes if you don't have enough to eat and drink.
Look at East Asia, which is close to South Korea and Japan. It is the best selling area of HNB products. The market accounts for a high proportion and the growth rate is also fast. It basically looks for teeth everywhere. This must be the ideal template for China Tobacco hope.
Is it true that East Asian people prefer HNB? The answer is obviously not. The dominance of this HNB route is based on policy regulation. The South Korean government called on the public not to smoke atomized e-cigarettes, stressed the attraction of e-cigarettes to minors, and carried out a series of stigmatization and pressure on atomized e-cigarettes in the name of unclear harm of e-cigarettes; Japan does not allow nicotine to be added to cigarette oil. All those with nicotine are banned from sale. That's a gross cigarette.
After Yueke's listing, our country's treatment is more like that of South Korea, not to mention complete prohibition, but always emphasizing potential harm and attraction to teenagers will hurt the next generation. I bought 10000 shares after Yueke went public. I felt that the government was really taking care of Yueke in the past six months. As soon as Yueke was good, I immediately followed the authoritative speech of Xinhua news agency or the health commission. Why? Because now supporting the policy of atomizing e-cigarettes. Including taxes, including nicotine content restrictions, taste restrictions and so on. Policy making needs a process, and the growth rate of atomized smoke is too fast, which makes policy makers feel great pressure. In order to reduce the pressure, we had to provide close service and slow down the atomized e-cigarette through the mature suppression policy of South Korea.
Therefore, if Yueke really wants to move forward, in addition to taking out the damage reduction data of hard core, it also has to do a good job in GR and PR. GR is easy to understand, and PR is reverse pr. Other companies are Fortune news, looking for someone to blow the industry ticket. What Yueke should do is to find someone to withdraw the manuscript, try not to publish the manuscript and reduce the heat. From the perspective of policy makers, to reduce the pressure they face, the final benefit may be themselves. After all, policies introduced under high pressure are often easy to apply across the board.
3.22 regulatory regulations, why only one sentence is added, referring to cigarette management. Because more detailed regulations really take time and need to be based on a lot of investigation and research. Without enough information support, we can't make scientific and reasonable decisions. In recent years, our national policy-making and governance have focused on political popular support and scientific laws. For new problems in new fields, big leaders usually hold a learning meeting first and let experts in the industry give lectures, so as to make more scientific decisions.
As I said before, the decision-making level of tobacco, which involves trillions of fiscal revenue and was previously a monopoly industry, is very high. How to control the atomized e-cigarette is not determined by the General Administration of tobacco and China National Tobacco, nor by the Ministry of industry and information technology at a higher level. Therefore, how to smoke one mouthful at a time will not make the atomized smoke live. It's a little brain. In this matter, the smoke only has the right to make suggestions. He has no decision-making power and can't shoot the board.
Therefore, the introduction cycle of atomized e-cigarette policy will be very long, which will be longer than many friends who want to stir fry a wave. On March 22, the new regulations on e-cigarettes came out, and the opinions of industry, health and finance and taxation departments were collected through the draft of the new regulations, which was the first wave. For the special treatment of e-cigarettes from June to September, all localities concentrated on making thorough statistics on the sales channels of e-cigarettes, focused on the current situation of the implementation of youth protection, and fined a number of young people for not doing enough protection. This is the second wave. These are all trying to find out and understand the situation. Without investigation, there is no right to speak. This is an important work discipline and working method of our party.
It is conceivable that there are still several tasks to be done synchronously. People at the finance and taxation office are studying the strength of atomized electronic cigarette tax collection in various countries, the future electronic cigarette tax rate, and how to collect specific nicotine from quantity and price. There is a lot of detailed work to be done. The medical and health department is following up the specific toxicity research of atomized e-cigarettes, turning to foreign papers and looking for domestic experts to find out whether cigarettes are less harmful than cigarettes and how they affect the brain development of teenagers. Looking at the current nicotine concentration of cigarette bombs, whether it needs to be limited, and which spices can be added and which cannot be added in cigarette oil, strive to give industry guidance as soon as possible and draw a clear safety bottom line of the industry. The of the National Standardization Committee can't be idle. They have to hold a discussion with industry associations to study standards at home and abroad, publish a draft of the national standard for electronic cigarettes, and report it to the leaders for reference. Wait, wait, wait. None of the above can be completed in a day or two. So don't expect that the policy on e-cigarettes can be implemented overnight.
At present, the only thing that can be judged is that the regulators are decelerating and reducing the heat of atomized electronic smoke through various means. In order to buy time for decision-makers and reduce the pressure of short-term decision-making.
After figuring this out, we can understand why Yueke encountered so many close "care" after it went public.
Yueke issued 2020 annual report and four seasons report on March 26, and issued new regulations on March 22, with reference to cigarette management.
Yueke issued the first quarterly report of this year on June 2. In June 1, the law on the protection of minors included the prohibition of selling e-cigarettes to minors in the law.
Yueke announced on August 4 that it had successfully applied for the first clinical trial of e-cigarettes in China. That night, two hours later, Xinhua News Agency issued a document to guard against the flow of e-cigarettes to minors.
In addition, various opinions of the National Health Commission and the who are constantly published in the newspapers. Yueke carrying the e-cigarette industry may be the unlucky person who was hit the most in the first half of the year, in addition to education and training.
This constant accurate suppression and uninterrupted media publicity itself is a kind of signal, a kind of unfriendly signal.
Therefore, any friend who wants to copy the bottom and enjoy the moment should not take chances. On the one hand, in the short term, the policy can not be implemented overnight, which is destined to have a long process of killing valuation and logic. On the other hand, with the continuous pressure of the media, there will be no large funds to dare to pick up the offer. After all, the lessons of online education are still there.
In the future, it may be through research and policies, which will give Yueke and other brands equal opportunities to compete, but now it is an indisputable fact that they are holding the brake and slowing down the brands.
Speaking of this, you may think I'm a pure bear of Yueke. In fact, I bought 10000 shares just after Yueke went public. Recently, I have chased 10000 shares. I keep a close eye on the trend of Yueke in the past six months. I have also predicted optimistically that the atomized e-cigarette can go through a legalization process like online car hailing, and the government will eventually give a better development space, but I have to admit that I can't predict the policy direction with my ability.
I have envisaged several regulatory ideas. The most optimistic is to limit the taste and nicotine content, adjust the tax rate to the standard tobacco, face up to the harm reduction effect of atomized e-cigarettes, give equal competitive status, and let atomized e-cigarettes develop in China. This kind of policy is basically aimed at Europe and the United States. Atomized e-cigarettes may gradually obtain a large market share by virtue of their iterative advantages in harm reduction. The final market scale will be hundreds of billions to trillion yuan. The state will take hundreds of billions of special taxes on nicotine and public health, and enterprises will leave tens of billions of profits.
Neutral and optimistic estimation is to implement the nicotine quota system on the basis of all the above implementation, which is uniformly managed by China tobacco. Similar to the previous quota system and split account system for imported films in the film industry, it limits the total amount of nicotine used by atomized e-cigarette enterprises, and in a disguised way ties the reins to this galloping wild horse, setting a growth ceiling for the whole atomized e-cigarette industry.
At the same time, in order to encourage e-cigarette brands to go to sea, there is no such restriction on overseas export. Be more radical. You can even set up export points. Brands that sell more overseas can strive for more quotas for the domestic part. In this part, in fact, the state has a lot of cards to play. Unlike many people's imagination, the policy will only be one size fits all. That really belittles the wisdom of policymakers.
Therefore, the medium optimism is that the orderly development under strong domestic supervision encourages enterprises to develop overseas.
The neutral pessimistic policy is based on the implementation of all the above, with reference to the Internet TV license or audio-visual license, which is only issued to a number of provincial companies and special state-owned holding enterprises of China tobacco group. If private enterprises want to sell e-cigarettes, they need to rent a license. The daily operation is subject to the supervision and management of the provincial company, and the data is open and transparent. The representatives of the provincial company should be included in the board of directors and the daily operation and Management Committee. In this process, the operation autonomy of the atomized cigarette brand has been incomplete, and the big head in the distribution of interests has been taken away from all aspects.
I don't want to list any more pessimistic policy expectations. Afraid to scare everyone. In fact, under the neutral pessimistic policy, the investment value of e-cigarette brand Fang Ruyue has been greatly reduced. As a small shareholder of Yueke, I can only expect to be gentle when the policy is implemented.